cascading impacts of fire on water systems under future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
A core component of the work involves modelling future hazard occurrences at the global scale (spatially and temporally) – from floods to droughts and wildfire. The work will develop a probabilistic framework, handling uncertainty using a ensemble approach, to deliver a regional analysis of changing global hazards (floods (fluvial and pluvial), droughts (meterological and hydrological) and wildfire). Hotspots of increasing hazard magnitude/severity or duration will be identified and will feed into a wider project (led by the University of Bristol) exploring the global health burden of water supply under different SSPs.
Floods and droughts will be detected using threshold metrics and events extracted from global climate projections (e.g. CMIP6/ISIMIP). Wildfire occurrence will be modelled not merely as a static hazard, but as a driver of landscape change. You will utilise large-scale climate ensembles (e.g., CMIP6 ISIMIP) and land-use projections to simulate future fire frequencies, severities, and spatial extents. This fire occurrence modelling will serve as the foundational input for assessing how vegetation loss and soil property changes—such as increased water repellency—alter the hydrological cycle.
Working at a large scale, you will be responsible for the necessary data processing, synthesis, and downscaling required to bridge the gap between coarse global climate models and actionable local risk insights. You will employ probabilistic approaches to handle uncertainties in both climate projections, water jazards and fire behaviour, ensuring robust estimates of future water-related hazards. The outputs will directly feed the wider project consortium (University of Bristol and Newcastle – exploring the potential global health burden from SSPs). This position demands strong skills in geospatial analysis, climate model and data knowledge, and statistical programming to translate complex, multi-hazard interactions into outputs.
People have always been at the heart of our work. Our people are at the centre of the University community and everything we do. We value colleagues with drive, determination and a passion for what they do. We are a place where everyone is welcome and offer a range of policies and benefits designed to support you in building the right meaningful flexibility that works for you.
This post is full-time (35 hours per week); however, we are open to considering part-time or flexible working patterns. We are also open to considering requests for hybrid working (on a non-contractual basis) that combines a mix of remote and regular on-campus working. Delete/amend statements if not appropriate (e.g. if role already part-time or if flexible working and/or hybrid working arrangements are not possible).
£41,885 to £49,798 per annum (Grade 7)
